The algorithm will work for markets like ‘Liverpool To Win The EPL’, but will not work for markets like ‘Liverpool Top-4’. Import advanced sports betting functions into Excel to help improve your chances of securing a payout on the best mobile apps. The Kelly criterion only defines the “optimal” bet to maximize return. Kelly Criterion Excel Spreadsheet. Phiên bản Excel 2021. Step - 2: Calculate the probability of each outcome. Kelly Criterion Excel Spreadsheet. It was found that the formula, which has a gambling background and helps to determine the optimal bet size, can also help with finding the ideal investment size. 1 Main Idea In the gambling game we just described, the gambling probability and payo per bet do not change, and thus, from an intuitive stand-point, it would make sense that an optimal solution would bet the same fraction, f, of your money for every trial. Results. Enter your Email below to Download Free Historical Data for Nikkei 225 and Economic Data for 120,000+ Macroeconomic Indicators and Market Data covering Stocks, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies & Financial Indices of 150 countries in Excel or via. Put simply, the Kelly Criterion or Formula is a way to calculate how much of their assets a Forex trader should risk on any given trade in order to maximize the return. When the download is complete, open the file, and Microsoft will automatically install the entire collection of Microsoft 365 apps to your computer. 4 Free Photo Resizer is a powerful photo manipulation program that combines an intuitive user interface with a range of innovative real-time tools which enables ultra-fast, lossless resizing & converting of pictures - even for large image files. Your 'odds offered' are '2 to 1' (so enter 2 ). Kelly Criterion Excel Spreadsheet. using excel and Brownian motion. Calculate the profit and loss distribution of the set of option portfolios, such as the Bull Spread or. 3% is the probability that all 6 picks in the portfolio win. Football betting stats & predictions | OddsWizz. The outcome is a decentralized market that uses the Kelly criterion and is reasonably resilient to a wide range of invoicing scenarios, including 5% non-payment rates and 10% bogus invoices, yet provides a sound profit to liquidity providers. 5. , This Kelly Criterion Bet Calculator takes your inputs on odds, bankroll and payouts to deliver your Kelly Criterion optimized bet size. forms of gambling, including sports betting. Download Kelly Criterion Calculator and enjoy it on your iPhone, iPad, and iPod touch. 유도 3. 4), and; p is the probability of a win. Your 'odds offered' are '2 to 1' (so enter 2 ). On the right-hand side, p is the. 00 Here is the Formula: f*= (bp-q)/b. The spreadsheet compares your betting. The Kelly Criterion formula is: (BP - Q) / B. 28% on each bet. The Kelly Criterion is a formula used to determine the optimal size of your bets based on your edge and bankroll. The formula has a number of applications, one of which is sports betting. So: 4 The Kelly Criterion 4. Kelly Criterion. In the Data Table dialog, click in the Column Input Cell edit box; click on any empty cell outside of the area of your table; and then choose OK. What distinguishes simultaneous from sequential is that, if one of your bets loses, you don't get to use that info to reduce the size of one of the other wagers (like Kelly would say to do if they were sequential). while reducing volatility. Kelly Criterion Staking Method Explained What is the Kelly Criterion formula? The basic Kelly Criterion formula is: (bp-q)/b B = the Decimal odds -1 P = the probability of success Q = the probability of failure. The Kelly criterion is an excellent tool for assessing the qualitative shape of risk versus reward and understanding the boundaries of rational bets. 5. Excel is an extremely powerful program that can be used for various betting related situations and none more so than calculating the Kelly criterion. is only apply kelly criterion excel spreadsheet monkey, and recognizes the sizes. The number of outcomes n and bets m is different. xls An Excel spreadsheet implementation of the Kelly criterion, including an exponentially-weighted version which gives greater weight to more recent trades. Learn how to make high probability bets and make income at the link below"WELCOME20" to get $20 off your first month!Kelly Crite. Download full solution. For reference, the formula and derivation can be found on the wiki. There's a section in it that uses the Kelly Formula. Test frequency: Enter the number of iterations to perform before the convergence criteria are checked again. 55) on a specific spread or total priced at -110 (american odds). The formula was derived by J. Mode 2: You know the sharp bookmaker odds and soft bookmaker odds. Where can I find an Excel example of the Kelly criterion as . Kelly Criterion – Part 2 – Derivation. betting $10, on win, rewards $14, including the bet; then b=0. kelly criterion excel; multi kelly calculator excel;Excel is an extremely powerful program that can be used for various betting related situations and none more so than calculating the Kelly criterion. 55)-0. The Kelly Criterion is a relatively simple math equation to determine the percentage of your bankroll you should bet on any given circumstance, assuming you have an advantage. One of the arguments is Kelly criterion is optimal in theory. By supplying an arbitrary probability distribution modeling the future price movement of a set of stocks, the Kelly fraction for investing each stock can be calculated by inverting a matrix involving only first and second moments. ¿Qué es el Kelly Criterion? El Kelly Criterion fue desarrollado por John Kelly Jr. Many handicappers will not wager more than 2% of their total bankroll on a. Since our goal is to apply the Kelly criterion on stocks, a similar result for a continuous distribution is relevant (Thorp 2006). . 5 to 1 come hell or high water one thousand times we should *expect* make on average: $12,000. Open the official website and download the software. , -200 odds and shorter) because the Kelly Calculator struggles with “sure things. KELLY CRITERION EXCEL EVOLUTION 2. Sports bettors typically use it to maximize profit, although most implement a more conservative approach since the Kelly Criterion is usually considered high-variance. 034 or 3. Winning Probability: Enter the probability of earning a profit from investment. com 152 4. ple and correct procedure to apply the Kelly strategy for the general case. The formula calculates the ideal sum you should stake on any bet, helping minimise your risk and maximise your profits in the long term. pdf from BIZ 101 at National University of Singapore. This leads us to the optimal betting amount called the kelley criterion: f∗ = pb − qa ab f ∗ = p b − q a a b. Kelly Criteria Probability of Achieving Expected Returns Tolerable Drawdown EEE " Kelly Criterion Capital Allocator" is a simple Capital Allocation model built and improvised by Dinesh Sairam, inspired by Dr. Big-time investors such as Warren Buffett and Bill Gross have recently revealed that they use the Kelly. It’s free and easy to use. I'm reading the Dhandho Investor by Pabrai. Object moved to here. First thing to note: growth rate is always sloping down at k = 1 = α. By supplying an arbitrary probability distribution modeling the future price movement of a set of stocks, the Kelly fraction for investing each stock can be calculated by inverting a matrix involving only first and second moments. , Can the Kelly Formula be generated in Excel?Search for jobs related to Kelly criterion calculator or hire on the world's largest freelancing marketplace with 23m+ jobs. The Kelly criterion is an excellent tool for assessing the qualitative shape of risk versus reward and understanding the boundaries of rational bets. Key Takeaways The Kelly criterion or Kelly strategy is a mathematical equation used to determine position sizing for investors and gamblers. Using the example, click any cell in the list range A6:C10. The Kelly bet size is found by maximizing the expected value of the logarithm of wealth, which is. The Kelly Criterion, in more detail Due to requests • In the third lecture, I showed the formula andThe Kelly criterion is a special betting system that is used exclusively for blackjack card counting. 034 or 3. Assume a gambler tosses a biased coin so that the probability p to get a tail is known and larger than 0. Utilizziamo il file KELLY CRITERION EXCEL EVOLUTION 2. With sports betting, however, you may feel the probability of an outcome is 50%, but you do not know that with certainty. One thing that complicates the matter is that short term results can vary widely from the long term. The more there are, the better. The Kelly criterion is well known among the gamblers as a formula to calculate the optimal bet size in games with a positive expected return. But on those occasions when you lose, you will lose your stake of $57. 70. Choose the event type – independent events, which refers to several different games; or exclusive outcomes. Because we give SUMIFS two values for criteria, it returns two results. com. How to use the Kelly Criterion to decide how much of your. If we let q=1−p, then interestingly, the Kelly criterion recommends that the bettor only bets (f > 0) if the bettor has an edge, that is. 5. I came across it almost by accident, in William Poundstone’s delightful book Fortune’s Formula. The Kelly Criterion What is Kelly's Formula. According to the Kelly criterion your optimal bet is about 5. Four staking plans are compared: full-Kelly, half-Kelly, quarter-Kelly and eighth-Kelly. 25%. We’ve developed a Kelly Criterion formula Excel spreadsheet that you can download here. Applying the Kelly criterion without. It was designed to maximize the growth of your bank-roll over the long term, by determining the optimal stake on a bet. The worksheet tracks your bets and provides in-depth performance data as well as a profit graph. The tidyquant package provides a convenient wrapper to various xts, zoo, quantmod, TTR and PerformanceAnalytics package functions and returns the objects in the tidy tibble format. Copy link Link copied. 33 on the Capitols you ensure you make just over $2,906 regardless of the outcome! This would have been very important given the Capitols went on to win the Stanley Cup. k. Variance is formula kelly criterion exampleEl Kelly Criterion Calculator Excel es una hoja de cálculo que te ayuda a calcular el tamaño de la posición óptima para cada operación. Kelly's Criterion is well known among gamblers and investors as a method for maximizing the returns one would expect to observe over long periods of betting or. The same principle would work for any investment with an expectation of being profitable. past trading performance, 13 10,000 1 14 10,000 1 The Inputs to the Kelly Criterion are as fol 15 12,000 1 16 4,000 1 W = The winning probability facto 17 5,000 1. The Kelly Criterion is employed by many sharp players to advantage bet vs. The formula is as follows: Where: K % = The. O>0, such that log can be defined, and . Mode 1: You know the true probability of an outcome and the soft bookmaker odds. When my web page is up the spreadsheet will be available. We've developed a Kelly Criterion formula Excel spreadsheet that you can download here. "In probability theory and intertemporal portfolio choice, the Kelly criterion (or Kelly strategy or Kelly bet), also known as the scientific gambling method, is a formula for bet sizing that leads almost surely to higher wealth compared to any other. Our Kelly Criterion calculator makes it easy to calculate the ideal size of your bets for any given. Follow these steps to determine your optimal bet stake using the Kelly Criterion:1. Interesting, if you’ll note, is that if a user were to win $40,000, the bankroll would then draw down to $3,960,000, making the new highest bet only $39,600. The basic concept of Real Kelly is discussed here The Real Kelly. It is one of the few betting strategies. It helps calculate the optimal amount one should place on a bet or an investment. Football betting stats & predictions | OddsWizz. Kelly Criterion can be used in either discrete finance or continuous finance applications. Kelly criterion can generate an optimal bidding fraction (MacLean et al. 0% of similar occasions, you would expect to gain $99. 00 – 1) f* =0. a. It. In detail the algorithm will find optimal bet sizes for a set of concurrent singles and/or 'round robin' combinations of parlays or teasers. ” is published by TongTanapat. The Kelly Criterion is the principle of bank management for value betting. For example, if you have a 60% chance of winning and a 40% chance of losing, and your payoff is 2 times your loss, your edge is 0. Methods similar to those already described can be used to maximizeThe first credit allocation system is the adaptive Kelly strategy (‘Kelly Strategy’). Hedging with Betfair;. 75 in addition to your stake of $57. Kelly Criterion ruined many bankrolls especially of those who can’t analyse the exact probabilty. The Kelly Criterion formula allows bettors to maximize profits from a particular bankroll, based on the value the bet holds. 1. The Kelly Criterion How To Manage Your Money When You Have an Edge. RFP Vendor Template - Excel. 「kelly criterion賽馬」+1。那就是此前提及的Kellycriterion，很多人稱作凱利公式或凱利方程式。只要是賭徒，. 40. , -200 odds and shorter) because the Kelly Calculator struggles with “sure things. The Kelly bet size is found by maximizing the expected geometric growth rate. The Kelly criterion is otherwise called Kelly bet, Kelly formula, and the Kelly strategy. 32 = $101. 6% x 71. 0% = 6. It emerged from statistical work done by John Kelly at Bell Laboratories in the 1950s. This is the accompanying article to my previous post covering a python implementation of The Real Kelly Criterion for independent concurrent outcomes. rate of wealth. The Kelly Criterion is a method of analyzing your odds and assigning a number to those odds. f* is the fraction of the current wealth to bet (expressed in fraction), b is the net odds received on the bet (e. The Kelly criterion is a well-known strategy for sizing bets to maximize long-run expected log wealth. When investors. Here is a list of the most important things to remember while backtesting:. The Real Kelly). Kelly Criterion In probability theory, the Kelly Criterion is a. . On such events, it is recommended that bets be made according to the Kelly strategy. . Kelly Jr in 1956 that determines the optimal risk per trade for a trading strategy or betting system with a positive edge. Gain of Positive Outcome: Enter the potential gain of a positive outcome. The Kelly criterion is a money-management formula that calculates the optimal amount to ensure the greatest chance of success. The Kelly criterion is a theoretical formula for obtaining the best return when repeatedly investing money. Try out the Kelly Criterion Calculator below, but pay careful attention to heavy favorites (i. It results in the maximum expected rate of bankroll growth, and is the optimal strategy for money management in betting games. If a fully Kelly stake was 8%, then the half-, quarter- and eighth-Kelly stakes would be 4%, 2% and 1% respectively. The excel template can be downloaded here real_kelly-mutually_exclusive_outcomes- Please note (1) Outcomes must be mutually exclusive (= EXACTLY one outcome will happen). A Kelly portfolio maximizes the expected return of any given combination of assets in the long run, by maximizing the geometric growth rate of the wealth, which can be expressed by: g_{infty}(f^*) = frac{(mu - r)^2}{2sigma^2} + rRe: The differences between the Kelly Ratio and Optimal F: (from page 22 of link above) “Clearly, the Kelly Criterion when restated in terms of products (1a)(pls see screenshot) so that it is compared formulaically on an apples to apples basis with Optimal f (2)(see screenshot), rather than sums of logarithms (1)(see screenshot), is not the same. - Free download of the 'Optimal F for MQL5 (per Ralph Vince)' library by 'ToneGarot' for MetaTrader 5 in the MQL5 Code Base, 2018. Your fortune will grow, on average, by about 0. Using Excel Solver and assuming a 72% win probability for each teaser leg and payout odds for 2-6 team teasers of +100, +180, +300, +465, +750, respectively, one finds that the full-Kelly stake. It can also be a. p is the probability of the bet winning. If you check out Wikipedia or Investopedia, you’ll see formulas like this: f ∗ = p − 1 − p b − 1 f ∗ = p − 1 − p b − 1. 凱利公式、凱利方程、凱利判據、凱利策略（英語： Kelly criterion 、 Kelly strategy 、 Kelly bet ），是一種根据赌博赢或输的概率，计算出每次下注的资金占所有赌本的最佳比例的公式 ，由約翰·拉里·凱利於1956年在《 貝爾系統技術期刊 （ 英语 ： Bell System Technical. The more there are, the better. The Kelly Staking Plan is based on using the ‘ Kelly Constant ’. Esempio pratico e concreto: il 29 aprile si giocherà nel campionato russo il bigmatch tra Zenit San Pietroburgo e CSKA Mosca in cui è inutile negare l' equilibrio e l' incertezza. The Kelly criterion is a money management system that’s used by many professional traders and hedge funds. The true probability may lie between 40% and 60%, or even 20% and 80%. The Kelly-optimal bet is a fine line based on a solid understanding of the probabilities and returns. Fractional Kelly betting The recommended Kelly criterion stake will be multiplied by this value. Calculate your probability of winning W. 077 / 0. 05, 0. This fraction should be equal to the difference between non-default probability ( p) and default probability ( q ). In probability theory, the Kelly criterion (or Kelly strategy or Kelly bet) is a formula for sizing a bet. obj. blogspot. The Kelly formula or criterion is best known as a bet optimisation tool. Difficile ma non impossibile generare una vincita. 00. The Kelly formula (and fractional Kelly betting) easily applies to simpler betting games such as Poker, where the gambler can calculate the exact odds, has an immediate payback, and has only one. 0625; The Kelly Criterion implies you should bet 6. 개요. The kelly criterion is a formula used to bet a preset fraction of an account. To emphasize this connection, we refer to this optimal allocation as the Kelly criterion henceforth. It can seem counterintuitive in real time. For example, in the screen below, cell F4 contains this formula: = SUM ( SUMIFS (C3:C7,B3:B7,{"red","gold"})) Translation: SUM sales where the color is "red" OR "gold". 9K views 1 year ago Position Sizing can make or break your trading results. The Kelly Criterion is a popular staking method which suggests that your stake should be proportional to the perceived edge. The formula was developed by Kelly while working at the AT&T Bell. Here are the steps that you have to follow in order to use our Kelly Criterion Calculator: Add your current betting balance in the cell called “Current Betting Balance”. Note: FlashGap and OpenTrace are experimental and highly competative. The Real Kelly). Applying the formula to forex trading looks like this: Position size % = Winning trade % - ( (1- Winning trade %) / Risk-reward ratio )The odds are 60/40 in your favour so only betting $1 is likely too conservative. comThe Kelly criterion is a mathematical formula used to determine the optimal size of a series of bets or investments to maximize long-term growth. Losing the first bet and winning the second will lose $4 more. Part 1 of this series provides an introduction to the Kelly criterion along with a worked example. Big-time investors such as Warren Buffett and Bill Gross have recently revealed that they use the Kelly Criterion in their investment process. Bayesian statistics, health economics and random stuff by Gianluca Baio. The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula that helps investors and gamblers calculate what percentage of their money they should allocate to each investment or bet. Apply the kelly formula and get the fraction that optimizes the. xlsx","path":"Kelly Bet Calculator. To start the download, click the Download button and then do one of the following, or select another language from Change Language and then click Change. Can be any positive number. function is to create the right balance between risk and reward. Kelly Jr. Excel VBA Course - From Beginner to Expert. Kelly Criterion [Kelly 1956] permits the investor to maximise return on investment, geometrically. Moneyline odds given the criterion formula spreadsheet calculates the wager Creating a plan when i realized that the formula does it is not a return. 2151 32 St. The problem with this is that KC completely upends this. Income Calculators. txt) or read online for free. We advice you always to use the highest possible odds because they will help you to boost your potential winnings. 1. Please note. Sportsbook Pricing and Informed Bettors in the Early and Late Season in the NBA by Rodney Paul, Andrew Weinbach and Brad Humphreys (2013) The Kelly Criterion in Applied Portfolio Selection. Chopra and Ziemba (1993), reprinted in Section 2 of thisKelly vs. Copilot in Excel will help you analyze and explore your data so you can make the best decisions. will take. The odds are 60/40 in your favour so only betting $1 is likely too conservative. 025 or 2. To calculate the optimal bet size use Kelly's criterion . 영어로는 Kelly criterion, Kelly strategy, Kelly formula, Kelly bet 등으로 표현. Click Install Office to begin the Excel download process. 75 in addition to your stake of $57. Open navigation menu. The Kelly criterion or Kelly strategy is a formula used to determine position sizing to maximize profits while minimizing losses. Step - 2: Calculate the probability of each outcome. Try out the Kelly Criterion Calculator below, but pay careful attention to heavy favorites (i. " GitHub is where people build software. Add your expected win probability for the selection you have chosen in the cell called “Win Probability”, using values between 0% and 100%. Connect your apps to Copilot. Excel Formula for Dutch Betting. In particular, it maximizes the expected growth rate and the median of the terminal wealth. W = Historical winning percentage of a trading system. The introduction of Kelly criterion has called lots of attention since its invention from Wall Street to academy [2], [3], [4]. Managing Risk With Math. If you bet less than 10%, you’re not taking full advantage of. The spreadsheet compares your betting performance to the hypothetical results had you strictly followed the four staking plans. The Kelly Criterion If everytime we trade we force ourselves to trade 2. I assume that with multiple bets at a correlation of 1 I would divide the Kelly by the number of bets. the market, lazy man’s gambling at its finest. You need to input the probability (according to your own assessment) that your selection will win. Calculate the relationship between risk and return R. In this paper, we provide a new approach to apply-ing the Kelly criterion to stock market investments. b = the decimal odds – 1. xlsx (15. ) 2) Reward per Dollar Risked: Enter the amount of capital your strategy, on average, profits. The formula is therefore suggesting that 20% of the portfolio be stake 20% of your bankroll. Kelly, Jr in 1956. Kelly, Jr in 1956. By using the Kelly Criterion, and betting 20% of their. Son Tran & Peter Verhoeven, 2021. NFL historical results and odds (Excel format) NFL form guide;. Download full-text PDF. The Kelly formula is : Kelly % = W – (1-W)/R where: Kelly % = percentage of capital to be put into a single trade. 50) =. Y si bien la fórmula en sí misma puede ser un poco complicada, Excel ha simplificado su aplicación con su hoja de cálculo de Kelly Criterion. k. The Kelly Criteria requires that your percentage-estimations (probabilities) are better than the. The Kelly Criterion is employed by many sharp players to advantage bet vs. 1 Main Idea In the gambling game we just described, the gambling probability and payo per bet do not change, and thus, from an intuitive stand-point, it would make sense that an optimal solution would bet the same fraction, f, of your money for every trial. blackjack and obviously the stock market As simplified by Pabrai in his book, the Kelly criterion applied to the stock market is: Edge / Odds = Fraction of capital that should be. is the author of the Kelly criterion formula from 1956. 50 = (1-0. L. This guide explains how the Kelly Criterion works and why it’s so good for sports betting. The casino is willing to pay 2 to 1 on any bet you make. In this article I. Kelly's criterion where The Kelly Criterion is a formula which accepts known probabilities and payoffs as inputs and outputs the proportion of total wealth to bet in order to achieve the maximum growth rate. You are here: Home >> Beginner’s Guide >> The Kelly Criterion Once a decision is has been made to wager money on an event, the next decision is to choose how much of your account balance to wager. 50%. By considering both absolute wealth and relative wealth between investors, we show that different investor behaviors survive in different environments. obj. 45) – 0. txt) or read online for free. Excel and briefly R are used to show how the Kelly criterion is effective. Using Python, the author mentions in the article that the Kelly Criterion = 0. You stand to make $5000 if the Vegas Golden Knights win, and you can use the hedge calculator find out that if you place $2083. It takes into account the probability. Download PDF Download PDF with Cover Download XML Download Epub. According to the Kelly criterion your optimal bet is about 5. 4. 800. The Kelly Criterion is a formula that helps determine optimal bet sizes. So if the chance of winning on a single bet is 80%, the bettor should wager 60% of one’s bankroll. You can read more about how it works in this Kelly Criterion Wikipedia article. Example: KUtil(1. the market, lazy man’s gambling at its finest. Most only know a simplified version. To use the kelly criterion reasonably in trading you will need to follow these steps: Access at least one sample of one hundred trades you have executed. Download. Citing from the old thread:18+ Kelly Criterion Formula For Excel Download Image Formulas from formulasexceledu. 2 – Kelly’s Criterion. If you bet more than 10%, you’re taking on too much risk. KK. Although it may appear confusing, it’s actually pretty simple. Kelly Criterion, works by looking a traders historical win/loss and gain/loss performance and optimizes the next trade risk basis on overall performance history. Use this if you have a crystal ball that tells you the true probabilities. 40) / 1 = 0. * R =. The generalised Kelly Criterion (a. Determine mathematic equation. (Scientist, Bell Labs). On the Data tab, in the Sort & Filter group, click Advanced. Therefore the Kelly formulas could not give us the correct optimal f. In my recent article The Real Kelly – an #excel implementation for mutually exclusive outcomes I described how to use excel to find optimal bet sizes for a set of mutually exclusive outcomes applying the generalised Kelly Criterion (a. Created in 1956 by a Bell Labs scientist, the Kelly criterion is a formula for sizing bets or. Part 3 is the challenging part. The Kelly criterion is a money-management formula of passionate interest (and controversy) to card players, sports bettors, investors, hedge fund managers, and economists. As indicated by the formula, the optimal bet is determined by the formulaK= W - (1 - W)/R — where K is a percentage of the bettor's bankroll, W is the likelihood of a favorable return, and R is the. Microsoft Excel 2016 es el software de hoja de cálculo que forma parte del conjunto de herramientas de productividad que obtienes al descargar Office 2016 o Microsoft Office 365. I recommend reading carefully through @Pinnacle 's. Football betting stats & predictions | OddsWizz. rate of wealth. The outline of the remaining parts of the paper is as follows. Using the Kelly Criterion formula, we can calculate the optimal fraction of your bankroll to bet as: f* = ( (2. With sports betting, however, you may feel the probability of an outcome is 50%, but you do not know that with certainty. 1. The Kelly Criterion is a bankroll management strategy by which the player calculates the size of the bet based on past performance and the current amount of money. Kelly Criterion - Free download as Excel Spreadsheet (. Add the odds quoted by the. 1. Default value: 3%. 00 being returned. 18 % of your account balance on this selection. Kelly criterion allows you find out the fraction f* of your bankroll that you should bet if the odds of a bet and the probability of its success are known such as to maximize the logarithmic growth rate of your account. The Kelly Criterion is to bet a predetermined fraction of assets, and it can seem counterintuitive. 29 Losses using Kelly criterion: 119 X . What this means is that you should wager 10 units (or 10% of your bankroll) on this coin toss. Applying the Kelly criterion without. It's free and easy to use. Explore math with our beautiful, free online graphing calculator.